PCE

Personal Consumption Expenditures - Chain-Type Price Index

View on FRED · PCEPI ↗

132.26

yoy

▲ 3.65%

121 obs · monthly · index── 1y ago 127.6

What it is

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — their 2% target is defined against this, not CPI.

source: FRED
frequency: monthly
units: index
s.a.: yes

What it’s telling us · as of 2026-09-01

PCE is running 3.65% above a year ago, still well north of the Fed's 2% target and showing no sustained deceleration — the index has climbed every month since February. This is the number the Fed actually watches when it decides whether to cut rates or hold, which means we're still in the "inflation sticky" regime that keeps long rates elevated and refi math unfriendly. If PCE rolls over decisively in the next two months the rate-cut narrative snaps back into focus; if it keeps grinding higher, expect the Fed to stay patient and mortgage rates to stay rangy.

⟡ auto-generated weekly · claude-haiku-4-5 · reviewed before publish

Related metrics

Get the data

Python · fredapi

"""
PCE — The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — their 2% target is defined against this, not CPI.
Freq: monthly · Source: FRED
"""
from fredapi import Fred

fred = Fred(api_key="YOUR_FRED_API_KEY")
series = fred.get_series("PCEPI")
print(series.tail())

LLM prompt

You are analyzing FRED series PCEPI — Personal Consumption Expenditures - Chain-Type Price Index.

Context: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — their 2% target is defined against this, not CPI.

Attributes
- Units: index
- Frequency: monthly
- Source: FRED

Latest observation: 132.26 as of 2026-09-01
Year-over-year change: +3.65%

Analyze this metric for a tech-forward real estate investor with 1–3 properties. What is it signaling right now? What should I watch next?