CPILFESL · as of 2026-09-01
Core CPI
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers - All Items Less Food and Energy
View on FRED · CPILFESL ↗338.9
yoy
▲ 2.57%
120 obs · monthly · index── 1y ago 330.42
What it is
What the Fed actually watches. Predicts rate path, which predicts mortgage rates.
- source
- FRED
- frequency
- monthly
- units
- index
- s.a.
- yes
What it’s telling us · as of 2026-09-01
Core CPI prints 338.9, up 2.57% year-over-year—still above the Fed's 2% target but cooling from the 3%+ prints of 2024-25. The three-month trend is a steady climb (up 4.4 points since June), which means the disinflationary drift has stalled; the Fed will notice. This is the number that sets rate-cut timing, and a re-acceleration here kills the case for easier policy into year-end. For mortgage rates, the read is simple: if core stays above 2.5% YoY, expect the 30Y to stay sticky in the mid-6s.
⟡ auto-generated weekly · claude-haiku-4-5 · reviewed before publish
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Get the data
Python · fredapi
"""
Core CPI — What the Fed actually watches. Predicts rate path, which predicts mortgage rates.
Freq: monthly · Source: FRED
"""
from fredapi import Fred
fred = Fred(api_key="YOUR_FRED_API_KEY")
series = fred.get_series("CPILFESL")
print(series.tail())LLM prompt
You are analyzing FRED series CPILFESL — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers - All Items Less Food and Energy. Context: What the Fed actually watches. Predicts rate path, which predicts mortgage rates. Attributes - Units: index - Frequency: monthly - Source: FRED Latest observation: 338.9 as of 2026-09-01 Year-over-year change: +2.57% Analyze this metric for a tech-forward real estate investor with 1–3 properties. What is it signaling right now? What should I watch next?