Core PCE

Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy

View on FRED · PCEPILFE ↗

130.9

yoy

▲ 3.12%

121 obs · monthly · index── 1y ago 126.94

What it is

The single number the Fed cares about most. Directly drives rate-cut/hike decisions.

source: FRED
frequency: monthly
units: index
s.a.: yes

What it’s telling us · as of 2026-09-01

Core PCE sits at 130.9, up 3.1% from a year ago—still running above the Fed's 2% target but cooling from the 2021-22 blowout. The monthly creep (up 0.4 points since August) is modest enough that Powell can credibly talk about patience, but the year-over-year gap means rate cuts are priced in gradually, not urgently. For you: if the Fed's still worried about inflation, your cost of capital doesn't fall as fast as the headline FOMC statement might suggest—model for rates sticky in the current band through at least Q1.

⟡ auto-generated weekly · claude-haiku-4-5 · reviewed before publish

Related metrics

Get the data

Python · fredapi

"""
Core PCE — The single number the Fed cares about most. Directly drives rate-cut/hike decisions.
Freq: monthly · Source: FRED
"""
from fredapi import Fred

fred = Fred(api_key="YOUR_FRED_API_KEY")
series = fred.get_series("PCEPILFE")
print(series.tail())

LLM prompt

You are analyzing FRED series PCEPILFE — Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy.

Context: The single number the Fed cares about most. Directly drives rate-cut/hike decisions.

Attributes
- Units: index
- Frequency: monthly
- Source: FRED

Latest observation: 130.9 as of 2026-09-01
Year-over-year change: +3.12%

Analyze this metric for a tech-forward real estate investor with 1–3 properties. What is it signaling right now? What should I watch next?